Meaning of Obama's meeting for Mideast

US PRESIDENT Barack Obama will host the first meeting between Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today in the hope of re-launching peace negotiations. Here is what it may mean for conflict in the Middle East:

The greatest likelihood is it will do little to resolve a conflict that is six decades old. A peace process going on for nearly two decades will remain stalled unless one or both sides make sharp changes in their positions. Neither seems likely to.

Perhaps most significantly, the meeting will throw a spotlight on Obama's role in the Middle East, where he has said he will work to end the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. It is part of a wider effort to stabilise the oil-producing region.

After taking office in January, Obama was applauded by Palestinians and other Arabs for taking a tough public tone with Israel, notably in insisting Netanyahu freeze Jewish settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem. However, having earned scorn for that same stance among many Israelis and Israel's supporters in the United States, his apparent failure to force concessions from Israel has led the Palestinians and other Arabs to question the credibility of Obama's peacemaking efforts.

A Palestinian official saw today's summit like this: "The Americans have failed to convince the Israelis to halt settlement and now they want a photo opportunity. We'll do this not to upset Obama. But it's a victory for Netanyahu."

An Israeli official put it this way: "There'll ... be some kind of handshake because this is what Obama wants. But it's not going anywhere longer term. ... With all due respect to Obama, this is not realistic. Everyone wants a process ... but nobody actually wants peace — because peace, you have to pay for."

Officials and diplomats in the Middle East are loath to write off Obama's envoy, George Mitchell, the former senator credited with helping bring peace to Northern Ireland. But even Mitchell's reputation faces a major test and analysts question how far Obama will want to expend his personal political capital on the conflict, particularly if his domestic agenda remains difficult as mid-term and re-election battles start to loom.

A key factor is also Netanyahu's focus on Iran and its nuclear programme as the prime threat to Israel. In the absence of the kind of Palestinian attacks seen earlier this decade, that focus is widely accepted by the Israeli public, reducing any pressure from voters for compromise with the Palestinians.

Among Palestinians, Abbas's authority is somewhat improved since elections last month in his Fatah faction, but his ability to make deals remains limited by pressure from Hamas.

Away from negotiating tables, a build-up of Western-backed Palestinian security forces under Abbas in the West Bank and some easing of occupation strictures by Israel is credited with lowering tensions. For many analysts, however, improvements are fragile without a negotiated final settlement of the conflict.

For now, talks will focus on narrowing differences over a freeze in Jewish settlement and on the scope of negotiations. Netanyahu is opposing Abbas's insistence on a final process that aims to set the parameters of a Palestinian state.

Reuters