Guessing game

BEING named heir apparent in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was often a curse. For most of the past 60 years of its rule, many of the party's "crown princes" ended their days as political pariahs — or worse still, dead. Mao Zedong appointed three successors. All three failed to succeed the Great Helmsman. Communist China's third generation leader, Jiang Zemin, did manage to escape the curse. But that may have been because he was parachuted to the top leadership post in 1989 when Deng and other senior leaders were retiring or preparing to retire, and thus spent little time being prince-in-waiting. It was only with the current Chinese leader, Hu Jintao, that the CCP finally broke the crown prince curse. Hu survived as heir apparent for 10 years before taking over from Jiang in 2002 — the first transfer of power in the CCP that did not involve bloodshed or a prolonged power struggle. Many took that as a sign that peaceful, orderly, systematic succession planning would, henceforth, be the norm in Chinese politics.

But the events of last week suggest that the CCP may not have fully institutionalised a clear and predictable system of succession. At the end of the annual plenum of the party's Central Committee, Chinese Vice-President Xi Jinping was not appointed vice-chairman of the CPC's Central Military Commission (CMC), as was widely expected. Granted, it is not written in the party constitution, or anywhere else for that matter, that the designated successor to the party leader must be appointed such. But following the pattern of the last decade, people had assumed that last week's plenum would be a suitable occasion for the crown prince to take his first steps towards the throne. Hu was made the CMC vice-chairman at a similar plenum in 1999, after seven years as the heir apparent. This prepared the way for his takeover from Jiang as the country's leader in 2002. And two years later, Hu completed the succession by taking over from Jiang as CMC chairman. As Xi is widely expected to succeed Hu at the next party congress, due in 2012, the timing seemed ripe for him to start his tutelage in the military chain of command, an especially important step in a country in which power is still believed to be derived from the barrel of a gun.

For a country as big, powerful and important as China, it is critical that leadership succession is sorted out early, with few wild cards in play. Foreign investors and leaders of other nations benefit from having advance knowledge of who is to be the leader of the world's most populous country, with the third largest economy and the largest standing army. But by remaining silent, the CCP has effectively allowed the guessing game to continue. Although it would appear Xi is still the heir apparent — besides Hu, he was the only other leader to speak at the plenum — rumours are now swirling about his non-promotion.

The truth is, no one outside the party's elite circle really knows. And therein lies the nub of the problem. By delaying an announcement on the succession — even by just a month as some have suggested may be the case — the CCP's leaders have failed to grasp a golden opportunity to signal the growing stability and strength of their political system.

Coming on the eve of the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic on Oct 1, such an announcement would have earned the CCP considerable credit. The CCP has done much over the years to institutionalise meritocracy. The competent — not just the connected — have moved ahead, in keeping with the party's focus on improving governance. But if the CCP is sincere about "never letting the people down", as a People's Daily editorial said last Friday, it should also further institutionalise political succession. The break from the turbulent days when anointed ones were cursed should be clear and unambiguous.

The Straits Times/ANN