Netanyahu has no room to wriggle out

THE abrupt cancellation of a meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US Middle East envoy George Mitchell and the stern rebuff the Israeli Prime Minister received from his European allies show how much Netanyahu finds himself isolated on the issue of settlements.

Netanyahu was supposed to meet Mitchell in Paris, where he had gone to "sell" his idea of a "demilitarised" Palestinian state to his European friends. The reason given for the cancellation of the meeting was that Israel sought "more professional work" before the meeting. However, the growing rift over the issue has come to the fore as Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak would instead meet Mitchell next week in Washington.

For the first time Netanyahu is facing the heat from all corners, even some of Israel's close allies are parroting President Obama's demand for complete cessation of settlements.

Netanyahu said last Wednesday, after meeting the leaders of France and Italy, that his bid for a demilitarised Palestinian state is gaining international ground.

But French President Nicolas Sarkozy, like President Barack Obama, insisted on a complete and immediate halt to all forms of settlement construction.

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi was restrained on the settlements, saying only that Israel needed "to send signals" on stopping.

The French president, who defines himself as a friend of Israel but whose country has traditionally good relations with much of the Arab world, urged faster action towards creating a Palestinian state.

"I am your friend and therefore I am speaking honestly," Sarkozy told Netanyahu during their meeting at the Elysee Palace. "You must conduct confidence building measures and the first must be the absolute freeze on construction in the settlements."

In addition, Sarkozy insisted that Israel must cede sovereignty over parts of Jerusalem claimed by the Palestinians, something that is an anathema to Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition partners.

No matter how much Netanyahu tries to downplay the growing rift between him and Obama, the fact of the matter is that the hawkish Israeli Prime Minister has been caught between a rock and hard place. On one hand, he cannot afford to annoy or lose Israel's closest ally. On the other, if he tries to please or satisfy Washington by halting settlements, he faces rebellion from his right-wing political partners on whose support his government rests on.

One senior Israeli official said "a lot of hard work" would be necessary to reach common ground with the United States, which also advocates creation of a Palestinian state.

The problem Netanyahu is facing today is that for the first time we have an American President who has taken a tough stand against the settlements and is refusing to budge.

Past American presidents had always opposed settlements. But in practice, most of them turned a blind eye. Most analysts say Obama has hit Netanyahu at his weakest point.

On the issue of settlements, even some of the great Israeli supporters on the Capitol Hill are not with Netanyahu and many opinion polls have shown that a majority of Israelis are willing to give up settlements in exchange for a genuine peace.

So, it is not a very strong emotive issue with the Jewish people and their supporters. However, the issue has the potential to tear apart the Netanyahu government comprising extreme right-wing formations. If Netanyahu backtracks on settlements, his government would fall and that will solve a lot of Obama's problems as it will force Netanyahu to forge an alliance with Tzipi Livni's centrist Kadima Party.

The White House will be happier if Livni replaces him as the prime minister. So, like a game of chess, Obama has cornered Netanyahu from all angles, leaving no room for him to wriggle out.