Climate change is no zero-sum game

CLIMATE change is being played like a zero-sum game between the developed countries on one side and the developing nations on the other where presumably the sum of the so-called winnings and losses of the players is always zero and cancel each. However, despite the growing awareness that this is one "game" where, unless all abide by the agreed protocols and plan a strategy to combat the menace with commitment by all, it will only end with losers and survivors. There can be no winners in this matter.

There are just three days to work out a draft deal for the United Nations Climate Conference from December 7-18 in Copenhagen and, gleaning the various news reports, there appear to be none on the table. According to the latest reports the roughly 50 African countries boycotted meetings yesterday saying that industrial countries had set carbon-cutting targets too low for reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. Apparently the 130 developing countries supported the African group's action "to focus the mind" of the developed countries on the most important issue of committing to the reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 25 to 40 per cent from 1990 levels by 2020.

However, the individual offers of developed countries only amount to a maximum 18 per cent, and many of them have reportedly made it clear that they mean to dump the Kyoto Protocol with its legally-binding emission cuts to one which only requires national pledges backed by a peer monitoring process.

The problem is the Kyoto Protocol set no binding greenhouse gas reduction commitments on developing countries including China, which is now the largest emitter in the world. Developed nations are pressing on binding commitments on part of China and India and the other developing countries and for them not to continue with business-as-usual. The developed world is pushing for 50 per cent cut by 2050 compared with 1990 emissions requiring a 20 per cent absolute cut and 60 per cent per capita cut on the part of developing countries. They have also targeted cut of 80 per cent for themselves.

However, China's Pemier Wen Jiabao, in a recent telephone conversation with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, reportedly showed no sign of changing China's position in the global climate negotiations and wants to stick to the Kyoto Protocol. There is also rigidity on both sides on the respective contributions towards a climate fund. The developing countries stand that it is the developed world that has fomented the crisis and so must play the major part in terms of commitments to emission reductions as well as funding. However, the developed world has baulked at this.

So it appears that unless there is a major turnaround in stance on the part of both parties there will only be hands in empty pockets, nothing on the table and plenty of hot air when the time for the Copenhagen conference comes around. The promise or omen of things to come if the world continues this way has already presented in the findings and numerous scientific presentations including former US vice-president Al Gore's Oscar winning documentary "An Inconvenient Truth".

There is already evidence of the ground of receding glaciers and melting polar ice as well as the increasing severity of droughts as well as storms in all parts of the world from unusualy severe hurricanes of the west and typhoons of the east. In this part of the world it is the people of the Philippines and Taiwan who have borne the brunt of the inclement weather. Storm-weary Filipinos have been battered at least four times this year killing hundreds and Taiwan for the first time cancelled its Double Ten celebration marking its national day to mourn for at least 424 people who perished in Typhoon Morakot. Vietnam also took its share of the hammering. If we continue this way and the rising weather melts the land-based polar ice in places like Greenland and the Antarctic continent, sea levels are bound to rise.

It has already been predicted that the sea level will rise by at least one metre within this century. Can you imagine receding coastlines, disappearing islands and millions of displaced refugees? Now, that is an incovenient truth.