Russian gambit to counter China

RUSSIAN Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's recent visit to New Delhi which saw the signing of a plethora of defence deals worth billions of dollars, including an agreement to build 12 nuclear reactors in India, should be seen beyond consolidation of ties between the two traditional allies.

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Putin reiterated traditional bonds between the two countries with Singh making very clear that India's growing ties with the US should not in any way hamper cooperation between India and Russia. Singh said that despite the post-Cold War changes and New Delhi developing close ties with the US, UK, France and Germany, Russia remained "a key pillar of our foreign policy and we regard Russia as a trusted strategic partner. Ours is a relationship that not only stands independent of any other, but whose significance has grown over time".

Putin, on his part, while highlighting the special status accorded by Russia to its ties with India, said his country did not have any military cooperation with Pakistan because it understands India's concerns.

Experts say Putin's visit should be seen beyond selling of the Russian hardware to India. They say by developing defence cooperation with India, Putin wants Russian involvement and influence in the region in the face of rising Chinese power, which Indians are also wary of.

Putin may be concerned at the expansion of Nato in eastern Europe but he can't remain oblivious to the growing influence of China in the South Asian sub-continent. That's why he clearly mentioned the non-existent defence ties between Russia and Pakistan, knowing fully that it will sound music to New Delhi, which is very uncomfortable with broadening of the Islamabad-Beijing defence cooperation that includes the joint production of fighter aircraft.

Putin is very much aware of the power dynamics in the sub-continent and does not want the Russian influence to diminish. So the best way to counter China is through India. In this regard the most significant part of the defence deal was the price settlement of aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov at roughly US$2.34 billion ($3.34b). The price row between India and Russia had delayed the delivery of the carrier, which is now renamed by India as INS Vikramaditya, after an ancient Hindu king.

Although China does not have an aircraft carrier, it has in recent years built strategic port alliances with Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Myanmar as part of Beijing's South Asian "string of pearls" strategy. Not to be left behind, the carrier will help India expand its influence in the Indian Ocean. Of course, China does not have any presence in the Indian Ocean but as an India analyst said "We don't know what will happen in 15 years. They've already showed their capabilities in the Pacific, and we need to be ready."

The strategic importance of the Indian Ocean has grown as energy needs of both India and China are rapidly increasing due to the size of their economies. The shift in Moscow's approach should be seen in the context of change of guard at the White House.

During George W Bush's regime, Putin was very much perturbed by the rapid Nato expansion in eastern Europe, which Russia considers its own backyard. Russia even went to the extent of forming a partnership with India and China to challenge the US-dominated world order since the end of the Cold War.

With the notion of "unipolar" world fading, Russia has become increasing wary of the growing economic and political clout of China with which it shares borders. The fact is that both India and Russia are aware that they cannot stop the Chinese juggernaut. So, Russia is using India as a counterweight against China while India won't mind increasing influence of Moscow in the region at the expense of Beijing.