Kabul conference and challenges before Karzai

The much-touted one-day international conference which concluded in Kabul on Wednesday may have given Afghan President Hamid Karzai the opportunity to steal the limelight but the ambitious goal of handing over security in all 34 provinces of Afghanistan to the government by the end of 2014 raises very serious questions about the ability of Afghan security forces in taking charge.

The conference itself highlighted this concern when despite the entire capital being shutdown for the event, the plane of UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon was diverted to Bagram air base as the Kabul airport came under rocket attacks by the Taliban notwithstanding bomb attacks one day before the conference.

Given this scenario, the pledge made by President Karzai that he was determined that his soldiers and police will be responsible for all military and law enforcement operations by 2014 which corresponds with the end of Karzai's term seems very tall order as within four years the Afghan forces must be able to control law and order situation as well as take part in counterinsurgency operations.

The allies set an interim goal of expanding the Afghan army from 85,000 in 2009 to 134,000 troops by October 2011. However, the rapid expansion of Afghan forces has raised concerns about infiltration by the Taliban and the professionalism of the forces. Only yesterday, an Afghan soldier opened fire on US civilian trainers at an army base in northern Afghanistan, killing two Americans before being shot dead. Such instances of internal firing against coalition partners have risen sharply of late.

This means that Afghan police and military need serious reforms to raise an effective, cohesive and disciplined force.

The second question is about the multi-million dollar aid budget. President Karzai wants that at least 50 per cent of development aid be channelled through his government within two years, from the current 20 per cent.

Some US$13 billion worth of aid has been earmarked to be spent in Afghanistan over the next five years. But the US and its allies have expressed concern over giving more control to Karzai amid fears that he is not doing enough to deal with corruption.

On this front, President Karzai needs to take stringent steps as corruption and mismanagement in the government remains a serious challenge. Most of the analysts are of the view that lack of development and improvement in civic conditions is the main reason why the Taliban still enjoy popular support.

Although on paper all these promises appear sound and achievable, the ground reality however is very different. Even Nato Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has admitted that the "job" was not defeating the Taliban but standing up an indigenous army to fight them. So what's the way out? There have been reports that the White House is reworking its Afghanistan strategy to open talks through mediators, with senior Taliban figures. Although Washington has changed its stand from "no talks with the Taliban" leaders and has given tacit support to Karzai efforts to hold talks with them, the issue needs a clear cut policy as only political settlement can bring peace in Afghanistan.