Myanmar polls new ploy by junta

The decision by Myanmar military junta to hold parliamentary elections on November 7, about a week before the release of pro-democracy icon and Nobel Peace Prize-winner Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest on November 13 has brought more criticism and brickbats for the ruling military regime than praise.

The announcement of election date, clearly meant to keep Suu Kyi out of political process, has already triggered worldwide condemnation with the United States, Britain and human rights groups saying that elections in such environment will be not have any kind of legitimacy.

As many as 40 parties have registered to take part in the elections, of which at least seven are believed to be proxies of the military. More importantly, the big parties have complained that they have not been given enough time to submit the names of the candidates and raise funds. The last date for the submission of the list of candidates for parliamentary seats is August 30, which many parties say have made things difficult for them.

However, the most important factor that goes in the favour military regime is that the new constitution guarantees military 25 per cent of parliamentary seats, making it easy for the military to secure another 25 per cent to 35 per cent through its allies and proxies, thus ensuring that key ministries and major foreign and budget policy decisions remain with the junta.

The other view is that in the long term, Myanmar could undergo a gradual transition of power to a civilian government free of military control. This would be an evolutionary process, analysts say. "The generals may believe they can control political proxies, crony businessmen, military colleagues and ethnic factions ... but in a new context these groups might develop independent agendas," the International Crisis Group said in a report.

The question that remains to be seen is whether these elections can change the image of the military junta? Already the international community has dismissed the elections as cosmetic. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said in New York he has "taken note" of the announcement while reiterating his calls for the military junta "to honour their publicly stated commitments to hold inclusive, free and fair elections."

He urged the release of "all remaining political prisoners", which his spokesman said included Suu Kyi. However, the junta is not going to heed the international call for the release of Suu Kyi and other political prisoners as it knows that if allowed to participate in the elections, Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) would sweep the polls as it did in 1990.

The generals have crafted the entire poll process in such way that the odds are stacked in favour of the parties backed by the military.

In fact, the process is aimed at transforming the military junta into a civilian government.

The National Democratic Force (NDF), the splinter group of the NLD, formed by those in the party who wanted to contest elections is no match for the Union Solidarity and Development Party, formed in April by Prime Minister Thein Sein and other ministers who gave up their uniforms. So whatever civilian political dispensation emerges after the elections, it will remain under the firm control of the military.