Afghan pullout date confusion

The brazen Taliban attack on the US-run Forward Operating Bases (FOB) Salerno and Chapman on Saturday has confirmed the apprehension expressed by Afghan President Hamid Karzai and a US military commander that President Barack Obama's July 2011 date to start withdrawing troops from Afghanistan is boosting the Taliban's spirits. The increase in the Taliban attacks and comments of President Karzai and the US commander directly contradict General David Petraeus, who earlier said that the allied forces have blunted the momentum of the Taliban in their strongholds in Kandahar and Helmand provinces.

The war in Afghanistan is becoming increasingly unpopular with the US public, particularly the base of his own Democratic Party. In such a situation, there should have been complete clarity about the withdrawal date. Instead conflicting statements and different interpretations are creating further confusion.

From the very beginning, people have been questioning wisdom of announcing the withdrawal date. President Obama while announcing the surge in a December 2009 speech said forces will start to leave in July 2011 while "taking into account conditions on the ground".

Many considered the timeframe a strategic mistake because that would give the Taliban the reason or the incentive to hold on. Marine Corps commandant Gen James Conway has made it clear very bluntly that the deadline was "probably giving our enemy sustenance". Conway believes it will be "a few years" yet before the Marines can turn over the province to Afghan government forces. That does not bode well for the beginning to leave next July, and in fact, Conway is said to be preparing the Marines for the war continuing past the deadline. Even General Petraeus has said he would not be bound by Obama's timetable.

Critics feel the strategy has backfired as it sent a clear signal to the Taliban about US desperation to leave Afghanistan while raising unrealistic hope among Americans about the progress on the battlefield.

President Obama will be facing tough questions about the timetable for withdrawal during the strategy review this December, which Obama called for last year when he announced the July 2011 deadline and 30,000 additional troops. One of the biggest challenges President Obama faces today is not winning the hearts and minds of Afghans but winning the support of the US public for the war.

The American public is increasingly growing tired of the war as highlighted by many opinion polls. But acknowledgment of the "conditions on the ground" by a strong faction military commanders shows that the July 2011 deadline may be watered down or relaxed. Even Vice-President Joe Biden, a known opponent of the surge, recently said July 2011 would mark a start of Afghans exercising more sovereignty. "Everybody says, 'Is that an end date?' It is not. We are not leaving in 2011. We are beginning the transition," Biden said in a speech to veterans in Indianapolis.

By 2011, the United States and its allies would have been fighting in Afghanistan for nearly a decade since the September 11, 2001 attacks that prompted the war to oust the Taliban regime. And as the time goes on, the chances of American troops returning early look remote.