Attacking Iran could speed up nuclear programme: report
Tuesday, March 6, 2007
PRE-EMPTIVE military strikes on Iran could accelerate rather than hinder Tehran's production of atomic weapons, a report by a British global security think-tank said yesterday.
Backed by the former chief UN weapons inspector in Iraq, Hans Blix, the Oxford Research Group said Iran could respond to an attack by launching a "crash programme" and build a crude nuclear device within months.
"If Iran is moving towards a nuclear weapons capacity it is doing it relatively slowly, most estimates put it at least five years away," said one of the report's authors, leading British nuclear scientist Frank Barnaby.
"However attacking Iran — far from setting back their progress towards a bomb — would almost certainly lead to a fast-track programme to develop a small number of nuclear devices as quickly as possible.
"It would be a bit like deciding to build a car from spare parts instead of building the entire car factory. Put simply, military attacks could speed Iran's progress to a nuclear bomb."
The report suggests air strikes, like those reportedly being considered by the United States and Israel, would harden Iranian attitudes and political resistance to outside pressure to stop uranium enrichment.
The Islamic republic would then focus on manufacturing nuclear devices, it added.
Blix, who headed the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (Unmovic) in Iraq and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), backs the report's assessment.
He wrote in the report's foreword: "Armed attacks on Iran would very likely lead to the result they were meant to avoid — the building of nuclear weapons within a few years."
The report argued that military action would probably result in a high number of civilian casualties, as a surprise attack would inevitably catch many people unaware and unprotected.
Air strikes would have to hit many well-protected targets across Iran, including the Kalaye Electric Company, which produces components for gas centrifuges used in uranium enrichment. Other targets would include the Bushehr nuclear reactor, the Arak heavy water reactor and heavy water production plant, uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, uranium mines at Saghand and the research reactors at Isfahan.
AFP
Backed by the former chief UN weapons inspector in Iraq, Hans Blix, the Oxford Research Group said Iran could respond to an attack by launching a "crash programme" and build a crude nuclear device within months.
"If Iran is moving towards a nuclear weapons capacity it is doing it relatively slowly, most estimates put it at least five years away," said one of the report's authors, leading British nuclear scientist Frank Barnaby.
"However attacking Iran — far from setting back their progress towards a bomb — would almost certainly lead to a fast-track programme to develop a small number of nuclear devices as quickly as possible.
"It would be a bit like deciding to build a car from spare parts instead of building the entire car factory. Put simply, military attacks could speed Iran's progress to a nuclear bomb."
The report suggests air strikes, like those reportedly being considered by the United States and Israel, would harden Iranian attitudes and political resistance to outside pressure to stop uranium enrichment.
The Islamic republic would then focus on manufacturing nuclear devices, it added.
Blix, who headed the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (Unmovic) in Iraq and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), backs the report's assessment.
He wrote in the report's foreword: "Armed attacks on Iran would very likely lead to the result they were meant to avoid — the building of nuclear weapons within a few years."
The report argued that military action would probably result in a high number of civilian casualties, as a surprise attack would inevitably catch many people unaware and unprotected.
Air strikes would have to hit many well-protected targets across Iran, including the Kalaye Electric Company, which produces components for gas centrifuges used in uranium enrichment. Other targets would include the Bushehr nuclear reactor, the Arak heavy water reactor and heavy water production plant, uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, uranium mines at Saghand and the research reactors at Isfahan.
AFP
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