Sonthi, Surayud: same bed, different dreams
Saturday, May 5, 2007
IF YOU believe some of the juicy political tales being bandied about by so-called "insiders", it's very likely there is no love lost between Premier Surayud Chulanont and chairman of the Council for National Security (CNS), General Sonthi Boonyaratglin.
But if you ask the "experts" whether, when push comes to shove, the latter is ready to exercise his power as the coup leader and ease out the former and take over Government House himself, the answer is most likely a hesitant "perhaps not".
The real "inside stories" — and there are usually many layers to such claims to exclusive insight — have it that the country's two top generals aren't really at loggerheads, as some recent rumours tend to suggest.
But some members of the CNS, including one or two outspoken generals close to the Army chief, have made no secret of their disappointment with what they see as a laggard prime minister who has not pinned down ex-premier Thaksin Shinnawatra or moved the government forward to blunt criticism from several quarters against the coup-makers.
Sonthi has come under growing pressure from some of his own right-hand men to hand the premier an ultimatum — shape up or ship out. But the coup leader himself realises that things could get worse if he were to take over the premiership himself.
Unofficial talks to persuade former prime minister Anand Panyarachun to come back a third time to lead the country after a military takeover have hit a brick wall.
Anand, determined to distance himself as much as possible from such potentially damaging speculation, is said to have told Surayud that he won't take up the offer — and that the last thing he wanted was to make a bad political and military situation even worse.
It would be naive to suggest that Sonthi himself has not been toying with the idea — proposed either by overzealous aides or even concerned advisers — of wrapping up the issue by concurrently assuming the premiership himself. But he is also realistic enough to know that the road to hell could well be paved by good intentions.
The whole idea behind him asking his former boss to become premier after the September 2006 putsch was to create a safety valve — a buffer that he could lean on as a political wall and, at the same time, use as tangible proof that he hadn't staged the coup to attain a hidden political ambition.
Sonthi has so far stuck to respectful gestures towards Surayud, occasionally injecting a slight tone of authority to gently remind the public that he retains the right to nominate and fire the prime minister. Surayud, on the other hand, has kept the chief coup-maker, his former right-hand man, at a proper, courteous distance. Despite the crescendo of dissenting voices from various quarters for the two generals to break the current deadlock, neither Sonthi nor Surayud can really afford to take things into their own hands and discard the other from the overall scheme of things.
It would be calamitous for both not to realise that time isn't on their side and there aren't many viable options ahead.
The third moment of truth — the next election day — will relieve the two generals of the most challenging assignment of their lives.
In other words, even if Sonthi and Surayud are tempted to break ranks with each other at the instigation of their respective advisers, the cold reality of politics on the ground dictates that the two generals will have to stick it out together.
To turn an old Chinese saying on its head, the two may have different dreams but they have no choice but to share the same bed — even if it means they sleep in the back-to-back position.The Nation/Asia News Network
But if you ask the "experts" whether, when push comes to shove, the latter is ready to exercise his power as the coup leader and ease out the former and take over Government House himself, the answer is most likely a hesitant "perhaps not".
The real "inside stories" — and there are usually many layers to such claims to exclusive insight — have it that the country's two top generals aren't really at loggerheads, as some recent rumours tend to suggest.
But some members of the CNS, including one or two outspoken generals close to the Army chief, have made no secret of their disappointment with what they see as a laggard prime minister who has not pinned down ex-premier Thaksin Shinnawatra or moved the government forward to blunt criticism from several quarters against the coup-makers.
Sonthi has come under growing pressure from some of his own right-hand men to hand the premier an ultimatum — shape up or ship out. But the coup leader himself realises that things could get worse if he were to take over the premiership himself.
Unofficial talks to persuade former prime minister Anand Panyarachun to come back a third time to lead the country after a military takeover have hit a brick wall.
Anand, determined to distance himself as much as possible from such potentially damaging speculation, is said to have told Surayud that he won't take up the offer — and that the last thing he wanted was to make a bad political and military situation even worse.
It would be naive to suggest that Sonthi himself has not been toying with the idea — proposed either by overzealous aides or even concerned advisers — of wrapping up the issue by concurrently assuming the premiership himself. But he is also realistic enough to know that the road to hell could well be paved by good intentions.
The whole idea behind him asking his former boss to become premier after the September 2006 putsch was to create a safety valve — a buffer that he could lean on as a political wall and, at the same time, use as tangible proof that he hadn't staged the coup to attain a hidden political ambition.
Sonthi has so far stuck to respectful gestures towards Surayud, occasionally injecting a slight tone of authority to gently remind the public that he retains the right to nominate and fire the prime minister. Surayud, on the other hand, has kept the chief coup-maker, his former right-hand man, at a proper, courteous distance. Despite the crescendo of dissenting voices from various quarters for the two generals to break the current deadlock, neither Sonthi nor Surayud can really afford to take things into their own hands and discard the other from the overall scheme of things.
It would be calamitous for both not to realise that time isn't on their side and there aren't many viable options ahead.
The third moment of truth — the next election day — will relieve the two generals of the most challenging assignment of their lives.
In other words, even if Sonthi and Surayud are tempted to break ranks with each other at the instigation of their respective advisers, the cold reality of politics on the ground dictates that the two generals will have to stick it out together.
To turn an old Chinese saying on its head, the two may have different dreams but they have no choice but to share the same bed — even if it means they sleep in the back-to-back position.The Nation/Asia News Network
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