Not enough rice for humankind: experts
My rice bowl: A farmer is pictured working in a rice field at Los Banos, a university town south of Manila. The world's foremost rice experts say only a handful of countries have large rice surpluses, leaving even some of the biggest producers scrambling to grow enough to feed their own people. Picture: AFP
Friday, March 28, 2008
IT IS the staple food of half of humanity but only a handful of countries have large rice surpluses, leaving even some of the biggest producers scrambling to grow enough to feed their own people.
Land endowment determines which countries have enough of the cereal, say the world's foremost rice experts.
Thailand, India, Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia and Bangladesh are all blessed with broad riverine deltas and plains with huge tracts suitable for rice farming, and allot more than half of their arable land to it, says International Rice Research Institute economist David Dawe.
Rice importers by contrast are island or peninsular nations with more varied landscapes favouring maize, palm oil or coconut.
Rice yields in the Philippines are nearly double those of Thailand, the world's top exporter, yet as in Indonesia "there is just not enough land", says IRRI president Robert Zeigler in a joint interview with Dawe. The two countries combined have nearly 300 million mouths to feed and are among the most vulnerable consumers of the grain as inflation-adjusted rice prices have recently spiked close to historical highs.
The Philippines has imported rice almost every year since 1869, while Java, Indonesia's most populous island, has been an importer since the 16th century, Dawe says.
"I hope that if the situation becomes tight in the Philippines, the Filipinos will not point fingers at the Filipino rice farmer," Zeigler says.
Another problem facing consumers in the Philippines is hoarding by traders creating a supply shortage in the market and sending prices up.
Philippine President Gloria Arroyo has said the government will clamp down on rice hoarders, saying the Philippines, was a "price sensitive nation" that felt the strains of pressures from a globalised economy.
"I am asking traders not to jack up prices just because there is a crisis," Arroyo said recently.
Just 30 million to 35 million tonnes, or seven per cent of the world's annual rice harvest, is traded in the world market, and because the volumes are so thin they are subject to price shocks.
China is the world's largest producer and consumer and also has the highest yields, but is not a key player in the export market, says Zeigler, adding that China guards its rice reserve levels as a "state secret".
"China like any government is extremely concerned that their people have enough to eat, and so they are not going to export until they're sure they have enough to eat."
An unlucky confluence of events has pushed spot prices close to US$1,000 per tonne, levels not seen since the scientific breakthroughs of the "green revolution" in the early 1980s boosted yields and had since then helped keep prices below US$400 a tonne.
Adverse weather in Bangladesh, pests and disease in Vietnam, and political problems in Myanmar until the 1950s the world's top rice exporter have cut stocks usually available in the international market, Zeigler says.
Myanmar could be a big swing producer, but has "great difficulty buying fertiliser in the world market because of the (international trade) embargo. If they could get fertiliser and they could improve their rural infrastructure a bit they could be a big player," he says.
There was also some potential for large mechanised farms to grow rice in parts of southern Brazil and southern Argentina as well as Uruguay and Paraguay.
"They could conceivably come into the market but I don't know that they're going to be large players. They're temperate zones and they only get one crop a year," he says.
The biofuels industry could also make maize and soybeans more attractive, he adds.
While rice is not used to produce ethanol for biofuels, the diversion of other grains toward biofuel can affect the supply of other cereals and further add pressure to supply and price.
"In the US maize is going into ethanol big time. We have some land in Asia that is being redirected towards biofuel certainly a lot of interest in converting some good land into oil palm plantations for biodiesel. That's a concern," he says.
Corn and soybean production make more sense for South America "because the prices are much better and more stable", he says.
But this does not lead to optimism about rice production in an already-tight market.
"In general there's just not much room for areas of growth in the world for rice," Zeigler says. AFP
Land endowment determines which countries have enough of the cereal, say the world's foremost rice experts.
Thailand, India, Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia and Bangladesh are all blessed with broad riverine deltas and plains with huge tracts suitable for rice farming, and allot more than half of their arable land to it, says International Rice Research Institute economist David Dawe.
Rice importers by contrast are island or peninsular nations with more varied landscapes favouring maize, palm oil or coconut.
Rice yields in the Philippines are nearly double those of Thailand, the world's top exporter, yet as in Indonesia "there is just not enough land", says IRRI president Robert Zeigler in a joint interview with Dawe. The two countries combined have nearly 300 million mouths to feed and are among the most vulnerable consumers of the grain as inflation-adjusted rice prices have recently spiked close to historical highs.
The Philippines has imported rice almost every year since 1869, while Java, Indonesia's most populous island, has been an importer since the 16th century, Dawe says.
"I hope that if the situation becomes tight in the Philippines, the Filipinos will not point fingers at the Filipino rice farmer," Zeigler says.
Another problem facing consumers in the Philippines is hoarding by traders creating a supply shortage in the market and sending prices up.
Philippine President Gloria Arroyo has said the government will clamp down on rice hoarders, saying the Philippines, was a "price sensitive nation" that felt the strains of pressures from a globalised economy.
"I am asking traders not to jack up prices just because there is a crisis," Arroyo said recently.
Just 30 million to 35 million tonnes, or seven per cent of the world's annual rice harvest, is traded in the world market, and because the volumes are so thin they are subject to price shocks.
China is the world's largest producer and consumer and also has the highest yields, but is not a key player in the export market, says Zeigler, adding that China guards its rice reserve levels as a "state secret".
"China like any government is extremely concerned that their people have enough to eat, and so they are not going to export until they're sure they have enough to eat."
An unlucky confluence of events has pushed spot prices close to US$1,000 per tonne, levels not seen since the scientific breakthroughs of the "green revolution" in the early 1980s boosted yields and had since then helped keep prices below US$400 a tonne.
Adverse weather in Bangladesh, pests and disease in Vietnam, and political problems in Myanmar until the 1950s the world's top rice exporter have cut stocks usually available in the international market, Zeigler says.
Myanmar could be a big swing producer, but has "great difficulty buying fertiliser in the world market because of the (international trade) embargo. If they could get fertiliser and they could improve their rural infrastructure a bit they could be a big player," he says.
There was also some potential for large mechanised farms to grow rice in parts of southern Brazil and southern Argentina as well as Uruguay and Paraguay.
"They could conceivably come into the market but I don't know that they're going to be large players. They're temperate zones and they only get one crop a year," he says.
The biofuels industry could also make maize and soybeans more attractive, he adds.
While rice is not used to produce ethanol for biofuels, the diversion of other grains toward biofuel can affect the supply of other cereals and further add pressure to supply and price.
"In the US maize is going into ethanol big time. We have some land in Asia that is being redirected towards biofuel certainly a lot of interest in converting some good land into oil palm plantations for biodiesel. That's a concern," he says.
Corn and soybean production make more sense for South America "because the prices are much better and more stable", he says.
But this does not lead to optimism about rice production in an already-tight market.
"In general there's just not much room for areas of growth in the world for rice," Zeigler says. AFP
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