Sunday November 23, 2008

'Disaster diplomacy' fails on Myanmar


Thursday, May 15, 2008

ANY hopes of a 'disaster diplomacy' breakthrough in the antagonistic US-Myanmar relationship may have been banished in a few short minutes on May 5, when US First Lady Laura Bush lashed out at Myanmar's "inept" generals for failing to adequately warn people in the Irrawaddy delta region of the approaching Cyclone Nargis.

The remarks came a week after the United States Congress bestowed its Medal of Honour on Aung San Suu Kyi, the detained leader of the National League for Democracy—whom junta supremo Than Shwe is known to personally dislike.

The timing of Bush's remark was unfortunate. It could well be that the shattered communities of the Irrawaddy delta are paying the price.

"Disaster diplomacy" is a term coined by the media after the Bam earthquake in Iran in 2003, which killed close to 30,000 people. Iran, which had an antagonistic relationship with the US, opened its doors to American aid and disaster relief experts. The US in turn relaxed some economic sanctions to allow its agencies to take part in the relief effort. The move thawed relations somewhat—at least for a while.

The US-Myanmar relationship is certainly more fraught than the US-Iran one. The junta blamed the US for fomenting the 'saffron revolution' crushed by the army during August and September last year. The US subsequently tightened longstanding economic sanctions on the junta and targeted its cronies.

Earlier in January last year, the US and the United Kingdom had urged the United Nations Security Council to pass a resolution censuring Myanmar. The resolution was blocked by China and Russia.

Washington's attitude towards Myanmar has fuelled the junta's portrayal of the US as its enemy No 1.

That narrative is part of a cocktail of factors that contributes to the junta's self-image as protector of the unity of the state.

A few days after Bush made her remarks last week, Democrat Senator John Kerry said: "It is not clear how criticising the military junta right now helps convince them to allow urgently needed assistance for the Burmese people."

Joel Charny, vice-president for policy at Refugees International, a Washington-based advocacy group, was quoted as saying in the Los Angeles Times: "For humanitarian purpose, you have to put politics aside and say unequivocally that we want to help."

A prominent red sign near the University Avenue bungalow of Suu Kyi, who has spent 12 of the last 18 years under detention, reads: "Crush the foreign oppressors and oppose those holding negative views."

The sign itself lies crushed today, having been destroyed by the winds swirling around Cyclone Nargis' slow-moving eye as it passed over Rangoon. But the sentiment it expresses remains alive, and provides a clue to the regime's suspicion of foreigners.

Notes Myanmar's historian Thant Myint U: "A key reason for the government's suspicion is a long history of foreign intervention, including armed intervention in the country, not just during the colonial period but even much more recently in Myanmarese history, where China, the US and other countries have backed insurgencies.

Over the last few years they have become increasingly suspicious of humanitarian aid, especially since a lot of opposition groups, especially outside the country, have used the idea of humanitarian crises in the country to raise the issue of Myanmar before the UN Security Council and push for some kind of intervention. Whether or not this changes will depend at least in part on how good the diplomacy is in trying to allay those suspicions. A day after Bush's remarks, President George W Bush said his message to Myanmar's military rulers was: "Let the United States come help you."

The Treasury Department this week lifted restrictions on US citizens transferring cash to Myanmarese nationals.

But the tough talk also continues. Yesterday, Bush told CBS News "the world ought to be angry and condemn the government of Myanmar" for not accepting the full scope of international aid.

On Monday at Thailand's Uthapao airbase, after days of stalling and recriminations, in what a US official called "a good first step", a US Air Force transport plane finally took off for Yangon with relief supplies.

Two more followed yesterday (May 13) and US naval ships and marines were on standby to help in the delta—if the junta allows them to.

Many are hoping that the effort will prove more than just a band-aid on the festering problem of the US-Myanmar relationship.

The Straits Times/ANN