THE BRUNEI TIMES report "Minister: Realistic fuel pump price needed (January 9, 2008) has generated public debate and concern to the extent that it has elicited an apparent cross-purpose with the official economic domain with the publicity of the concern expressed by the Acting Chairman of the Brunei Economic Development Board (BEDB) in your report: "Abrupt cuts to fuel subsidy can cause hardship" (The Brunei Times January 15, 2008).
The official concern highlighted by the Minister of Energy only focused on the huge financial costs of oil subsidy vis-a-vis the spikes in the average price of oil in the world markets. We believe the Minister also, in silence, feels the potential socio-economic pains which any stoppage or curtailment of the oil subsidy would inflict on the lives of the population.
Thus the Minister's intention at this early stage we feel has merely been to wake up all of us from the sedative effect of our "oil complacency", hence the excess and wastage of these extremely precious non-replaceable, non-renewable gifts, oil and gas, of Allah (swt), which Allah (swt) bestowed upon us millions of years ago.
Allah (swt) clearly reminds us in the Holy Quran, such as in: Surah Al Baqarah 2: Verse 284. "To Allah belongeth all that is in the heavens and earth.
Whether ye show what is in your minds or conceal it, Allah calleth you to account for it",
Surah Jonah, 10: Verse 31: "Say, who gives you sustenance from the sky and the earth. And who regulates the affair? They will say: Allah.";
Surah Ta Ha 20; Verse 6 "To Allah belongs what is in the heavens and on earth , and all between them, and all beneath the soil";
Surah 17: Verse 70: "We have honoured the sons of Adam; provided them with transport on land and sea; given them for sustenance things good and pure ; and conferred on them special favours, above a great part of our creation";
Surah Al-Jathiyah 45: Verse 12-13, "It is Allah who has subjected the sea to you that ships may sail through it by His Command, that ye may seek of His Bounty, and that ye may be grateful. And he has subjected to you, as from Him all that is in the heavens and on earth: behold, in that are Signs indeed for those who reflect";
Surah Al-Hadid 57:25 "And we sent down iron in which great might, as well as many benefits to mankind".
Note: As an example, the Divine Reminders are on sea and ships and iron. Obviously sea and ships and iron are for our giant oil and gas tankers for carrying our exports of our oil and gas to earn foreign exchange (another bounty of Allah (swt) to us. "BGC builds 2 ships for $700 million" (The Brunei Times Feb 1, 2008.
Foreign exchange so earned all these years since 1929 were used to finance our development projects, to multiply our other economic assets, such as, our human capital through education, technical training; medical and health and payments of salaries and wages, for repairs and maintenance of government assets, and for our investment portfolio, and for our oil subsidy.)
By inference, the Minister of Energy has publicly reminded us about Allah's (swt) other reminders to us, mankind that we must not indulge in excesses and wastage: such as in Surah Al-Anam, 6: Verse 141 "Eat/use what He produces. But waste not by excess, for Allah Loveth not the wasters";
Surah Al Araf,7: Verse 31 "O children of Adam! Wear your beautiful apparel at every time and place of prayer: eat and drink but waste not by excess for Allah Loveth not the wasters";
Surah Bani Israil,17: Verses 26-27 "But squander not (your wealth) in the manner of a spendthrift. Verily spendthrifts are brothers of Satan.";
Surah Al-Shuara ,26: Verses 151-152: "And follow not the bidding of those who are extravagant who make mischief in the land and mend not (their ways)";
Surah Al Rum (The Romans), 30: Verse 41. "Mischief has appeared on land and sea because of what the hands of men have done, that (Allah) may give them a taste of some of their deeds, in order that they may turn back (from Evil).
(These Surah and Verses such as Surah 26; Verses 151-152 and Surah 30: Verse 41 are reflected in a Book titled "Islam and the Environment" written by Harfiyah Abdel Hallem (1998) which is concerned about the dramatic, irreversible gross, global degration of the environment.
For example, the bitter fruits of mankind growing addiction to oil to the extent that The Economist (Aug 27-Sept 2, 2005) (picture - right) titled their cover with the phrase "The Oiloholics", depicting a caricature of hugely bloated Uncle Sam and equally a bloated dragon, signifying China, with a straw each sucking a separate barrel of oil, and around them are strewn numerous empty oil barrels. The rampant destruction and deforestation of the tropical forests, the pollution of the air and the seas, the slow but steady melting of ice mountains at the North and South poles are all frighteningly described in the books such as those written by Akhtaruddin Ahmed: "Islam and the Environmental crisis"; by Al Gore: "An Inconvenient Truth-the planetary emergency of global warning and what we can do about it"; "The World without us" by Alan Weisman; Mark Lynas wrote: "Six Degrees — Our future on a hotter planet."]
The current generation is passing on to future generations a physically smaller stock of environmental capital, such as forest, gold, iron, oil, gas and so on then it inherited. The productive capacity of this environmental capital can never ever be substituted by alternative forms of human capital, such as knowledge and skills and by man made machines. All these visible life threatening environmental degradations are the "signs" of those Divine reminders, guidance and advice.
Thus in our case, depleting situation of our unseen oil (and gas) is reflected in what the Ministers of Energy has tried to jolt us, to wake us up, by publicly pressing the alarm bells that these gifts (in our specific case, oil and gas) of Allah (swt) are not only so very precious but are limited, exhaustible, non-renewable and irreplaceable. One day they will disappear for ever! It would then be too late for us to buka mata, dalam keadaan dukacita!
Please note this information given by John S. Duffield in his book "Over a Barrel — The Cost of US Foriegn Oil Dependence": "The famous East Texas oil fields, which one held more than five billion barrels, had been all but exhausted. And some three-quarters of the estimated 13 billion barrels of recoverable reserves in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, which were not tapped until 1970s, had already been pumped." These were the foretastes.
A typical "frightening" graph (left) of lives of oil reserves.
(Another book: "The End of Oil — The Decline of the Petroleum Economy and The Rise Of A New Energy Order" by Paul Roberts.
Indonesia today imports more oil than it exports. Your pictorial snapshot: "Can't fight change" (The Brunei Times, Jan 15,2008) of the Norwegian Statfjord A-platform in the North Sea with the remarks of its Petroleum and Energy Minister — "Norway has to prepare for a shift from being a major oil producer as production is no longer growing." — aptly conveys this dire eventuality.
This reminds us of what we wrote to the Minister of Law and Attorney General in March 19,1998; it contained a poem, thus:
Oil is not merely a fuel,
It is the source of life itself:
Rahmat Allah without doubt,
Feeding our generation's mouths:
But time is running out,
Rahmat Allah bolih terlepas:
Oil wells are depleting very fast,
Just like what happened to Pennsylvania and Texas.
(The BBC news on Jan 26, 2008 showed the closing down for ever the Tower coal mine in Wales due to the exhaustion of its coal supply has left the miners unemployed.)
Every drop of oil, ever puff of gas, we extract and sell to meet the increasing demand of the world means a "loss" of every precious drop of oil and every precious puff of gas in our earth for us to extract tomorrow. Tomorrow means our future generations.
The painful paradox of having oil (and gas) as reminded by Allah (swt) was highlighted by the Venezuela Oil Minister and Opec co-founder, Juan Pablo Perez. In the 1970s, he called oil as "the devil's excrement". Thus there is a book entitled "The Devil's Excrement" written by Jerry Useen.
In 1967, in Suloh Brunei, the United Kingdom Brunei students magazine, we wrote an essay about this very precious, depletable Gift of Allah. The essay was titled "Economic Problems of Underdeveloped Countries" — with a specific reference to Brunei Darussalam's dependency on oil.
It may sound self-righteously servile to state here now that we need the confirmation by the august Singapore Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew's advice and reminder that "Complacency still Brunei's Biggest challenge", and "Lee Kuan Yew on Brunei next level of growth", (The Brunei Times, Jan 15, 2008).
In fact the gist of Lee Kuan Yew's advice and reminder are the main points of the various titah of His Majesty the Sultan dan Yang DiPertuan of Negara Brunei Darussalam which we elaborated at great length in our previous article published in The Brunei Times in 10 parts in November 2007.
The basic medicine to cure our stigma "fossilised complacency" is to make it compulsory for those personnel of those enabling authorities to get immersed in business, and feel how is it like to anxiously await for customers, or to balance income versus expenses, and to deal with those Little Napoleons.
Be a boxer, not a spectator advocating business mantra and savior-faire from a leather chair.
The confluence of the negative situations of depleting, irreplaceable, very precious gifts of Allah (swt), the fossilised complacency and the associated entrenched antipathy of those personnel of the enabling authorities against the enterprising , creativity and risk- taking spirit of those budding and established entrepreneurs, the failure to heed those titah of His Majesty (and the Divine Advice that we must be enterprising and creative, not complacent as amply mentioned in the Holy Quran: "Verily never will Allah change the condition of a people until they change what is in themselves." (Surah Al Ra'd, 13: Verse 11, and also Surah of Al-Anfal, 8: Verse 53) has caused us extreme consternation.
Please ponder on what author Jared Diamond in his book "Collapse" and Joseph Tainer in his book "The Collapse of Complex Societies". These books graphically delineate how past civilisations fell because their citizens did not prepare for a shortage of resources, that is their environmental capital. But then, the Holy Quran has had already forewarned us about these destructions:
"Mischief has appeared on land and sea because of (the need) that the hands of men have earned, that (Allah) may give them a taste of some of their deeds": (Surah The Romans, 30:41);
"And how many towns we have destroyed which exulted in their life (of ease and plenty)!...." (Surah Al Qasas, 28: Verse 58)
Thus with respect to our immediate concern, as was highlighted by the Minister of Energy, it confirms our postulation in that 1967 essay (in the Brunei UK Students' Suloh Brunei) when we read a 1995 analysis of developing countries by Jeffrey Sachs and Andrew Warner. They found that the more an economy relied on mineral wealth (the environmental capital), the lower its growth rate. Some economist even went to the extent asserting that "Oil is not an economy. Creative economic activities have spillover effects that become self sustaining." This means Allah (swt) bestowed us with superior brains than animals to be creative, innovative, enterprising and striving to be progressive and economically productive. We human beings are Bestowed by Allah (swt) with the unique combination of intellectual capital and environmental capital.
Though the Minister of Energy may not have openly elucidated this potential doomsday scenario in expressing his concern for the increasing high costs of oil subsidy, it vitally behoves us to collectively, nationally pay heed to this concern. This would be our best wordly opportunity as a basis of our cost-benefit analysis of those Divine advice and reminders to us.
Yang Dimuliakan Pehin Orang Kaya Lela Raja Dato Seri Laila Jasa Haji Awang Abdul Rahman bin Haji Abdul Karim DSLJ, PJK was formerly Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Defence. The views expressed by Pehin Datuk Rahman Karim are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of The Brunei Times.
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Part 2 continues on Monday
Saturday, February 16, 2008
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