Taiwan issue dominates US-China military ties

OF COURSE, there are two opposing views in Washington on American military relations with China. And the Taiwan issue is central to each.

One school holds that such activity is vital to America's national interest. General (Ret) Joseph Ralston, a former vice-chairman of the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff, typified this view in the Wall Street Journal.

"Military-to-military contacts help us build relationships of trust in peacetime that we rely on when tensions rise. Such relationships can potentially mean the difference between war and peace when a crisis arrives," he wrote last year in a piece arguing that the Pentagon needs friends in Beijing.

Military-to-military ties

But Randall Schriver, president of the think-tank Project 2049 Institute and previously senior director for China policy at the Department of Defence, is less absolute. "The US-China military-to-military relationship has proven to be of very limited value to the US," he wrote recently in the Washington Times.

Beijing alone has seen gains over the past 30 years, he said, and barring significant change, "Congress should seriously consider freezing funds for this counterproductive approach to US-China military relations".

According to Schriver, Washington's interest is driven by several aims. It seeks greater military transparency from China, enhanced safety of operations for its forces in the Pacific, a reduced chance of miscalculation through candid dialogue, a cooperative approach to global challenges and opportunities to influence a new generation of People's Liberation Army (PLA) officers. The US also looks to "demonstrate intentions and capabilities for deterrent effect".

US military vulnerabilities

Beijing, for its part, "seeks to influence Washington's decision-making on China's so-called core interests, to obtain professional know-how from the world's most capable military, to gain their own insights on US military vulnerabilities and to make advances in the area of technology transfer".

Each side has, nevertheless, regularly cast these goals aside to show political pique.

The US froze military-to-military relations with China following the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown on protesters, Beijing's 1996 missile tests aimed at intimidating Taiwan and the 2001 spy plane incident off Hainan Island. China reacted similarly when the US granted a visa to then Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui in 1995 and when the US bombed China's Belgrade embassy in 1999, but US arms sales to Taiwan provide the regular trigger.

This Sword of Damocles over the bilateral relationship has prompted some influential Americans to propose revising the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) to soften provisions legally obliging Washington to support Taiwan's defence. This would all but abandon Taipei in order to seek stronger ties with Beijing.

Others would brush off China's strident protests to further strengthen Taiwan's defence capabilities, effectively suspending military relations with Beijing. This view argues that Washington has little to lose in pushing for a more equitable process.

The next test of these contrasting perspectives is due by Oct 1, when the Obama administration should announce whether the US will provide Taiwan's air force with a badly needed upgrade through the sale of 66 F-16C/D fighters. Unconfirmed press reports recently stated that the request is likely to be refused in order to placate China.

But the White House may yet be denied the final word.

New legislation

"There are rumours coming out," said Mark Stokes, executive director at the Project 2049 Institute, in a telephone interview from Washington. "Remember the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act (passed with strong bipartisan support in 2000 and aimed to strengthen US military commitment to Taiwan). Well, something akin to that could possibly be introduced within the next couple of weeks."

A September 4 Taipei Times article reinforces this line. It states that Congressman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, who chairs the US House Foreign Affairs Committee, is expected imminently to introduce new legislation intended to strengthen and enhance the TRA.

"There is almost certainly enough bipartisan support to pass the Bill in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives but it may have a harder time in the Democrat-controlled Senate," the article states.

However, Stokes pointed out separately: "We had 46 (out of 100) senators write a letter to President Obama calling for release of the F-16C/Ds, which is unprecedented."

Political divisions

President Obama could well invoke his veto were such a Bill to pass in Congress, and so soothe Beijing's inevitable rage. But this would doubtless further deepen domestic political divisions.

One way or the other, though, both camps look convinced that it has come time to recalibrate US-China military-to-military relations. The only dispute seems to centre on which view this would favour, either accommodation with Beijing or strengthened support for Taipei.

"The fundamental rational for having a substantive military relationship with the PLA has sort of gone away," said Stokes. "It has become primarily symbolic."

The Straits Times/ANN